A now then, now then cunting for..
Covid 19 modelling policy
MY late mother, rather gloomily, once told me that death was the ‘perfect statistic’: it came to us all and was completely unambiguous. You were dead or you weren’t. (The only known modern exception to this rule is Theresa May.)
Covid-19 proved my mother wrong. Death, unambiguous, final death, has unsurprisingly become the salient statistic by which the success or otherwise of Covid-19 policy is measured. It is nonetheless disastrous that it is so.
By themselves, recorded deaths are data, not information, information being data with value. When starting out on modelling anything, you first have to ask yourself what is the ‘value’ of this data? What information I am trying ultimately to glean from it? That may sound ridiculously obvious, but I can assure you that both what the data actually measures, and what value you wish to extract from it, are very often simply assumed. Even having decided these questions, before modelling can begin you must know whether the dataset you have collected is up to scratch. How complete is it? Has it got missing values? Are there intrinsic biases? If so, can they reasonably be corrected?
After all the brouhaha of the past few weeks, this vital truth has been missed: Professor Ferguson has rightly got a kicking for his execrable coding standards and the uncertainties it has introduced into his modelling, but the fact remains that the model was modelling the wrong thing.
At the risk of sounding callous, the fact that someone died while infected with coronavirus is not particular useful: much more informative is did they die with coronavirus, or from coronavirus? The distinction plainly matters enormously, and the failure of the government to make it, as well as the irresponsibility of the media, means our economy will now almost certainly undergo the worst recession for 300 years.
Let’s assume in some better parallel universe that the government did avoid disaster by conveying the truth that coronavirus is not a grave threat to the young and healthy; even then, our work is not done. Is public policy really to be oriented towards stopping people dying? No, afraid not. Death is certain one day. What we should really be trying to minimise is life shortening, and when we view coronavirus policy in such a light the glaring holes appear: most of those who die with it – though by no means all – appear to be frail and in their twilight years. However, there have been frightening reports of a surge of non-Covid-related excess deaths during the lockdown period, plus a huge drop in cancer screening, no doubt eventually costing thousands of lives. Were these non-Covid and Covid-related cohorts medically and demographically different? Can they be modelled? Is the continuing lockdown, never mind the huge recession to follow, therefore going to lead to more aggregate life-shortening than ending it now would?
Whether or not lockdown was justified originally, it is surely crucial to ask these questions now. However, I fear that we will not do so: in our rich and plentiful lives, death is regarded not as an inevitability but as a scandal. That does not, of course, absolve politicians from treating us like adults and levelling with us about the hard choices that must be made. Nor, I am afraid, does it absolve the even more appalling performance of the Church, which for once had a crucial role to play in comforting the population and preparing them to face these intensely painful realities, but instead opted to excommunicate itself from the British people.
Of course, there are even larger and better philosophical questions concerning lockdown, some even more important than individual life and death: the long-term effect on freedom, state power and our culture, quality of life for example, and so on. However, even in the relatively narrow confines of modelling we are failing: the most sophisticated, most brilliantly coded models, fed with tip-top quality data, are worthless if the question you ask is wrong.
Nominated by Simmy Javile
Very nicely put, I wish I had the intelligence to write up a nomination as well as this. Reminds me of the idiot who refuses to send her child back to school until ‘the chance of death is at 0%’. Thick twat.
22
‘Chance of death is 0%’
Haha. What a Karen.
16
The only data that is really of any use is the excess deaths compared to the rolling average, granted this data doesn’t account for how people died but gives a definitive number and is used every year to assess the increase in Winter deaths (flu for example). The numbers unsurprisingly are higher when there is a ‘hard’ winter compared to a mild winter.
What can be seen already is the excess deaths are extremely high considering we have come out of a mild winter, the cause is different a matter but something has caused this. The something is a coronavirus, it’s been identified and seems to be random in its effect, I did see something today which pointed to blood type being a factor, I am sure more information will come out in time. What we don’t know is what the number would have been had the country not gone into a virtual standstill
Registration of deaths is an absolute, when you are dead you are dead, as the yanks say ‘no do overs‘
My question is why aren’t the worlds shitholes dying like flies, it seems the countries worst effected are the ones with high quality health care. Very strange!
10
The world’s shitholes don’t have a fucking thing unless we give £3 per month.
15
I would give them a fiver if they would take back some of the shit they have dropped on us.
7
“did they die with coronavirus, or from coronavirus?”…..this has always been my problem with the supposed death-toll. I read one report of a family grieving that they couldn’t be with some relation when he “passed” with Coronavirus….the bugger was 104 fucking years old…he’d been at Dunkirk !
Now call be hard-hearted but I do wonder if it was the virus that killed him…or just old age. It seems to me that the figures are being over-inflated to justify the over-reaction of a panicked Govt..although I can’t really see why the Doctors would go along with it.
Lack of breath is what kills us all in the end…just bang that on every certificate and tell us all that we must carry an oxygen tank around with us at all times if we care about the NHS and want to be heroes.
21
Eloquently argued, SJ, and have no hesitation in agreeing with your conclusion. There needs in addition to be an acknowledgement that the data quality is poor even now, while the data on which the original decisions were made was terrible.
If and when the right question is officially asked, I hope one of the paradigms involved in decision-making is
“Thou shalt not kill, but needst not strive
Officiously to keep alive”
Though that, in the light of BLM, would seem unlikely.
10
I know why shitholes are getting away lightly. Firstly not many people goi on holiday or emigrate to shitholes. Secondly not many people go there on business or to make money because they ain’t got no money. Therefore there are limited chances of outsiders bringing it in, unlike this country where any fucker can come waltzing in taking the piss.
Thirdly they haven’t got cars or money so even when they do get it they can’t travel around spreading it everywhere. So it will be contained within a very small area.
I think this makes sense. In a worldwide pandemic shitholes are the place to be.
9
That could be the answer, it’s probably no surprise we have the highest deaths in Europe, we have the busiest Hub in Europe, welcome to Heathrow and thank for bringing you coronavirus.
11
What annoys me the moving of goalposts ewhich keeps increasing the death toll.
It’s almost as if the government and media want us to remain in fear of the invisible killer.
12
As part of my job I have to go over the HSE mortality rates, I have been doing it for years and I have found some classics (In one case the family of the deceased removed because he manged to kill himself in such a stupid way).
“Contact with cattle” seems to be the most dangerous thing, death by explosion seems to be on the up and it is surprising that a female administrator managed to blow herself up.
One of my favourite ones was “came into contact with or was struck by inanimate object” I was just trawling last years and notice that they have changed their wording, I also liked the fact that different inspectors were metric and some imperial and one particular one from a few years back “cause of death, Painting Girder” (how?).
https://www.hse.gov.uk/foi/fatalities/2019-20.htm
So death modelling can be easy or difficult depending on the approach that you take, legally if I were to say hurt someone (on purpose) and they then developed complications as a result of the injury that kills them, I would be done for murder,
It all depends on how you want to record your data but like a warning on a fag packet you need to explain your method each time you spurt your figures.
7
Interesting comment this. I used to attend coroner´s courts over 30 years ago when I was a newspaper reporter and there were quite a lot of deaths where the real cause was not registered. For example, self-strangulation caused by people getting turned on by the experience and accidentally hanging themselves. Once a guy was found hanging from a tree just above a stone dyke on which he had stood with porn mags scattered around. The poor sod slipped and that was it. Another time a 12-year-old boy was found dead in a tent in similar circumstances.
This was a rural area where guns were common and there was a high rate of suicides among farmers using shotguns. My paper never published the details of these cases and the coroner always went out of his way to register an “accidental” death or “suicide while the balance of his mind was upset”.
7
I lived in Vienna for a couple of years (2013 – 2015); the locals are much given to offing themselves, to the extent that there is a concordat between local press and gvnmnt not to report, so as not to encourage copycats. Several times I was heading for the U-Bahn, to find services “suspended” because of “an incident”…One attempt was reported, however: that of someone drilling into the gas pipe in his flat, and more or less blowing the block up. Difficult to hide, that one, and I did wonder at the time why he didn’t just stick his head in the oven. I came within about 36 hours of doing it with N2; quite frankly, seeing what is happening to Britain now, I rather regret talking myself out of it… What a bloody awful sick joke everything seems to have become.
6
The trouble with data is it can be manipulated. Last week I heard if we used the same Covid death recording method as Spain we would be in double figures daily. There is a disparity in methods of recording Covid deaths across the world.
In the US a hospital received additional money for each Covid positive patient and an even larger sum for each Covid death.
If you’re a hospital not taking income from your usual turnover of patients it’s easy to see why heart attack victims who then test positive for Covid are registered as a Covid death.
The additional to norm deaths are probably key, then the question becomes was the treatment received correct or in some cases was the treatment a contributory factor in the death or even in some cases as is now becoming apparent the real cause of death.
The test for Covid turns out to be next to useless, so even if diagnosed with Covid and you actually have pneumonia, ventilation and drug induced coma will probably kill you.
7
Spot on. Although MSM are always going on about never having had anything loike this, except Spanish Flu, they have a child-like belief in statistics regarding the matter…. It’s just become another political football.
6
Before I clicked on this nomination, ‘Disease Modelling’, I thought is was going to be about stick thin, vacuous models suffering from all sorts of diseases parading up and down the catwalk.
“Here we have the lovely Tina wearing the new Gucci dress.
“The colour and cut of this particular outfit truly complements her severe leprosy.”
P.s leprosy or Hansen’s disease is bad. I don’t wish any disease on anyone.
4
Absolutely right! I have been pointing out to all who raise the subject that they need to understand the difference between “WITH the virus” and “OF the virus”.
Only cunts wouldn’t understand this, which has proved my view of the last 70 odd years that the overwhelming majority of the human race are CUNTS!
QED
12
Boris’s fixation on the days something’s going to happen gets me. ‘From Saturday you can go out and meet one member from a different household…’ Or some such. So this could be announced on the Monday so desperate people are waiting 4 days….seems so stupid.
4
Well if obesity reflects on death rate, work it out. All those cunts queuing up and blocking the roads when Muckdonalds reopened.
3
Including the Piers Morgan twat. He should be replaced with Chubby Charlotte; at least I could have a good fap. A fellow cunter’s description of Morgan the organ as a manatee was spot on.
2
Well the latest ONS figures show that all the highest mortality rated areas are Labour controlled. Read into that what you will.
6
I see. All is clear. Boris and Kummings are doing Trump’s bidding by targeting effnicks and lefties. Clever. I wonder why this hasn’t occurred to Steptoe or Sir Kweer.
3
Good article expanding on the nom:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/its-time-for-boris-johnson-to-take-back-control
(After 2 articles, paywall cuts in)
3
Too many doctors too eager to shove C-19 on the death certificate. Died of poisoning? Put C-19. Died of gunshot to the head? Put C-19. Over 80? Do not resuscitate and put C-19 on when shuffled off. Got stage 4 cancer, ill from something else? Sorry all treatment cancelled. When you die, we’ll shove C-19 on the death certificate anyway.
The number of excess deaths aren’t just due to Covid. Even MSM reported that 30% of excess deaths are nout to do with Covid but I think its much higher than that! Yes I’ve been reading David Icke and watching a lot of Computing Forever but that doesn’t mean there isn’t at least some truth in the so called ‘plandemic’. It just stands to reason that if treatment for serious illnesses are cancelled or people having heart attacks don’t want to go to hospital other than for ‘treament’ of C-19 then a lot of people are going to die and sadly they have.
Ferguson should be shot btw.
10
Biggest load of bollox in a living lifetime. Hardly anyone’s died in shithole countries, so either their reporting is wrong or the science is wrong. American and wealthy Western Europe most affected according to the stats; hmm I can’t possibly think of two related reasons why.
When the pandemic didn’t work they called on the riots. The last trick in the arsenal will be public lynchings – and it’ll be a very ugly case of lynch or be lynched. All this Marxist bollocks from celebs, MSM and the unions and the like is conditioning us to accept it.
This plan has been nearly 30 years in the execution, sparked chiefly by Bill Clunton and Satany Blair.
3
Indeed it all smacks of planned.
On a lighter note, I did enjoy this quote from a commentator I stumbled upon yesterday “Is it riot season already? Crikey I haven’t taken down my Covid-19 decorations yet.”
5
The disparity in bat flu data gathering across the world must be staggering.
Even in the affluent West I strongly suspect political considerations have influenced how Covid deaths are recorded.
As ever,the rule following political class in the UK will have flogged themselves being quite meticulous.
Now they are getting their arses handed to them for having one of the highest death tolls in the world.
What a load of shit.
3
Those supposedly in charge have no idea what they are doing, have engaged in either appalling or no planning and are desperately covering up how utterly useless and out of their depth they are with regard to managing the covid crisis in particular and everything else in general.
Anyone dying of anything is generally put down as a covid death to try and terrify the public with the escalating figures – this allows the Government to place restrictions and rules on us we would normally never accept.
Believe nothing, trust no one – we are being played.
4